United States Grand Prix 2026 predictions

Three practice sessions this time

Austin ran the Sprint format in 2025, which left teams one hour of practice before competitive running began. It is not one of the six sprint weekends in 2026, so the weekend has its full three practice sessions before qualifying on Saturday afternoon. The 2026 sprint calendar (opens in a new tab).

It is the first of three races on consecutive weekends, with Mexico City on 1 November and São Paulo on 8 November.

The Circuit of the Americas

COTA is 5.513 km long with 20 corners, and the Grand Prix runs anticlockwise for 56 laps. The lap has 41 metres of elevation change, most of it in the steep climb from the start line to Turn 1. Several corners borrow from other circuits: Turns 3 to 6 are modelled on Silverstone’s Maggotts and Becketts, and other sections take after Suzuka, Hockenheim and Istanbul Park. Pirelli’s circuit notes (opens in a new tab).

Turn 1 is wide at the top of the hill and regularly produces overtaking. Formula 1’s circuit guide (opens in a new tab).

Pirelli describes the tyre wear here as mostly thermal, and the temperature passed 30°C during the 2024 race. The circuit was partially resurfaced that year, which made it smoother. Grip builds as rubber goes down over the weekend, and in 2024 that let drivers run the Medium longer than the Sprint had suggested. Pirelli’s 2025 preview (opens in a new tab).

Ferrari and Mercedes are both bringing new parts

Ferrari has scheduled its main aerodynamic update for Austin, partly for logistical reasons and partly because the layout suits judging whether it works. The team has fallen back from the front since its Barcelona win. The Race on Ferrari’s plans (opens in a new tab).

Mercedes’ upgraded power unit was first expected for Baku, Sepang and Singapore, and is now reported to be more likely to arrive for this triple-header. George Russell has used up several of his engine components for the season and plans to take his grid penalty when the new specification arrives, so the race where it appears is likely to be the one where he starts further back. The Race on Russell’s penalty (opens in a new tab).

Verstappen won from pole in 2025

Max Verstappen won the Sprint and then led the Grand Prix from pole, finishing 7.959 seconds ahead of Lando Norris. Norris passed Charles Leclerc for second in the closing laps, and Lewis Hamilton was fourth. Every driver made one pit stop. The 2025 race report (opens in a new tab).

Pirelli brought C1, C3 and C4 that year, skipping a step between the Hard and the Medium to open up the choice between one stop and two. Pirelli’s 2025 selection (opens in a new tab).